The
Threat of ETCs to UK and Europe
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The Global
Warming Alliance held a conference at the Insitute of Physics in London
on Friday 6th June 2008 to present their research findings on the increased
activity of extra tropic cyclones as a result of global warming and
in particular the threat to London.
Transcript of keynote speech by Donald
Burfitt-Dons
My
interest in severe weather storms began in 1958 when I was based at
Lauthala Bay in Fiji with the New Zealand Air Force. Apart from unsuccessfully
trying to impress the Soviets during the height of the cold war, whose
submarines had an annoying habit of surfacing in the middle of Wellington
Harbour from time to time. This was very unfair because they knew perfectly
well that our tiny navy was based in Devonport in Auckland and that
our antiquated anti submarine aircraft were either in Auckland too or
1500 miles away in Fiji, and so didn’t pose the slightest threat.
However,
we did have a more useful role in the form of cyclone tracking duties
across the rather large Fijian FIR which stretched from Vanuatu in the
west to beyond the Cook Islands in the East and up to the Honolulu FIR
in the North.
Our job
was basically to fly into the centre of the cyclones at 1500 ft then
descend to 30ft just above swell height in the eye of the storm and
read the pressure on the altimeter. You got quite an accurate core pressure.
We would do the same the next day and thus track the direction. You
soon got an idea of what to expect in the way of readings and how they
related to the potential violence of the cyclone if it hit one of the
pacific islands. When the cyclones headed towards our base the entire
squadron shot off as fast as possible back to N.Z. The Sunderland was
a graceful bird but very slow Nevertheless it was robust and ideal for
hurricane hunting.
After
leaving the Air Force, as a pilot on commercial long haul flights on
707s and then 747s I naturally picked up what to expect in the way of
weather patterns across the globe. It was only in the late seventies
that I noticed the patterns had changed and were no longer so predictable.
I began to wonder why that was. Continued...Donald
Burfitt-Dons talks about contrails over the Atlantic
the
planet's way of recycling heat energy/
the first Brazilian hurricane/when
and where ETCs occur/cyclones outside
the tropics/how
the GWA monitors hurricane activity/the
rising tropopause/ETC activity
since the 50s/l ETC activity
since 1990/ the effect of an ETC
on London /how superwinds form/
the impact of ETCs on aircraft/data
from 21 recent storms/ UK as a breeding
ground for tornadoes/
the impact on the insurance industry/
future implications /threat
of ETCs to Europe adn UK
